ran one last spring in akron, bought at 118, paint carpet fixtures lighting new vanities in both baths, total reno 19,400, sold at 172 after 97 days, hard money was 12.5 percent, i netted just under 14.8 percent on purchase after both sides of closing and the carry. that's the best i've ever done on a true cosmetic job where i didn't manufacture equity by buying wildly distressed or off-market through a relationship i'd spent years building. the 20 percent figure gets thrown around by people who are either not counting their own labor, using a private lender at 0 percent from a family member, or bought something with hidden structural that they got at a structural discount and are calling it cosmetic.
the one thing i have never once seen work is buying at 80 percent ARV and expecting 20 percent net on a cosmetic. everyone models it that way. what actually happens is the ARV comp you anchored to was a peak sale from eight months ago and your buyer's agent talks you into pricing under it, or the house sits 30 days longer than your spreadsheet said and that alone eats 1.5 to 2 points depending on your rate. 13 to 15 is a real number in a real market with real carrying costs and i'd rather underwrite to that and be right than underwrite to 20 and be wrong at closing.
