Buy into a hotel hold now, or wait until the travel numbers point one way

I move slowly on everything, and I've been circling this sector for about a year without doing anything. What's stopping me is the timing question, and I'd like to see how the room splits on it rather than keep arguing with myself.

The case for going now. Hotels reprice every single night, which means a property with real demand behind it can push rate the moment conditions improve, and nobody has to wait for a lease to roll. Capital is reportedly rotating toward the sector looking for yield, and if that continues, entry pricing gets worse, not better. Sponsors are still raising, so there's something to look at.

The case for waiting. That same nightly repricing works in both directions. The economy slowed going into this year, unemployment is up, and travel is discretionary spending in a way that apartment rent and grocery anchored retail are not. If demand softens, occupancy and rate soften together, and a passive holder with a five year lockup has no lever to pull. Waiting costs nothing except opportunity.

And then a third position, which is that a passive investor should never try to time hotels at all, and should either size the position small enough that the cycle doesn't matter or stay out of the asset class entirely.

I genuinely don't know which of these I believe. Vote and tell me if you like, but the vote is what I'm after.