Comparing two land parcels at the same total price, the carrying cost decides the bet

Take a raw land buyer with two parcels available for the same money, and the two bets they represent are very different. Parcel A, 34 acres at $4,100 an acre, $139,400, nine miles past the last recorded subdivision, gravel county road frontage on about 600 feet, currently hayed under a handshake arrangement. A tax bill around $2,050 reflects an agricultural valuation, and whether that valuation survives a sale depends on the state and county, which needs confirming in writing rather than assuming. Parcel B, 11 acres at $12,500 an acre, $137,500, roughly 1,200 feet outside the current sewer district boundary, paved frontage, three sides already platted residential, tax bill around $3,400 with no ag valuation to lose. Over a ten year hold with flat taxes, A runs about $20,500 to carry and B about $34,000, plus survey and title on either, call it $4,500. Assume 5 percent annual appreciation on both and A comes out ahead purely because it is cheaper to hold, but that assumption is doing all the work, and the two parcels do not appreciate at the same rate in practice. B appreciates if the sewer district moves 1,200 feet within the hold period. A appreciates if the growth direction of the county holds for twenty years. A capital plan showing a study with no funded extension is common at this stage, and it deserves real weight rather than being read as a signal either way. The sharper question is whether the buyer is choosing a shorter, more legible bet at double the carry, or a cheaper carry on a longer and vaguer one, and whether there is a reserve left over for a tax bill that reassesses upward after either purchase.