First duplex closed after 18 months of planning. The boring parts carried it.
I've been the person in this room asking questions for a long time, so here's how the first one actually went.
Side-by-side duplex, two bed one bath each, built 1988, vinyl siding, separate gas and electric, separate water. That last one mattered more than I expected. 268k, 20 percent down, both units occupied at 1,075 and 1,100 on leases with eight and four months left.
My model before I offered: 26,100 gross, taxes 3,120, insurance 1,880, water on the tenants, landscaping 900, 5 percent vacancy, 250 per unit per year for capex, 8 percent to a manager. That left about 13,000 NOI and a bit over 200 a month after debt service. Not exciting. I wanted the boring version and I got it.
The part that nearly broke it: the inspection found the original 1988 furnace in unit B, and my lender's appraiser flagged soft trim on the north side. Seller wouldn't credit the furnace and I nearly walked over 3,800. What changed my mind was the reserve. I had 14k set aside separately from the down payment and closing, so a furnace was a thing I could absorb instead of a thing that ended me. I asked for 1,500 toward the trim, got 1,200, and closed. The furnace made it through the winter and I replaced it in April for 4,150, which was more than the 3,800 I refused to negotiate over. I don't mind, because I know the install and I know the date.
Eleven months in, unit A renewed at 1,150. Unit B turned in month seven, cost me 22 days vacant and 1,340 in paint and a bathroom vanity, and rerented at 1,175.
What I'd keep: the separate reserve that never got counted as part of the purchase, and writing the model down before I looked at the listing photos so I couldn't talk myself into a number.