Pro rata rent giveback on 148 beds, and the summer months don't work

Looking at an LP position in a 148 bed purpose-built property about half a mile from a mid-size public flagship. Sponsor is showing 96% pre-lease for the coming academic year and a T12 that assumes 12 months of collection on every bed.

The problem is the lease form. It's a 12 month by-the-bed lease with parental guarantee, standard enough, but there's a summer sublet clause that lets the resident assign to an approved subtenant and, if no subtenant is found within 30 days, the property manager markets the bed and the original resident pays a reduced rate. Sponsor's model treats that reduced rate as a rounding error. I pulled three years of their actual May through August collections at a sister property and it runs about 82% of the contract rate in those four months.

So on $780 a bed contract, four months at 82% costs me roughly $140 a bed a month across those months, call it $83k a year on the whole property. Against a projected $1.38m NOI that's six percent. Cap that at 5.5 and it's a $1.5m swing on a $27m asset.

What I'm unsure about is whether the sister property is a fair comparison. It's at a school with a heavier co-op and internship program, so summer emptying may be structurally worse there. I've asked for the same four-month collection data on the subject property and got a T12 back instead, which is not the same thing.

The decision in front of me is whether I press again and hold the LP allocation open, or take the allocation now on the assumption the summer gap is already inside their T12 and I'm double counting it. I genuinely can't tell from the documents I have which of those is true.