A rural RAL at 3,300 a month per resident, or the metro edge at 6,400 with a house that costs three times as much
Run two versions of the same 6-bed residential assisted living model and they tend not to converge. Rural version: a three-bedroom-plus-den ranch in a county seat of about 9,000 people, 215k purchase, maybe 90k of conversion work depending on what the fire marshal requires. Private pay rates in comparable licensed homes there run 3,100 to 3,400. Caregiver wage around 15 to 16 an hour, but the labor pool is small, maybe forty people total, half already working at the nursing home. Nearest hospital with a discharge planner is 40 miles away. Metro edge version: a split level in a first-ring suburb, 620k, similar conversion scope, private pay 6,200 to 6,600. Caregivers at 20 to 22 an hour, competing against hospital systems and larger communities for the same staff. Referral sources are thick on the ground. Rural pencils fine on a spreadsheet because the house is cheap and rate divided by cost basis looks strong. Metro pencils fine because 6,400 covers a real wage and a real manager and still leaves margin. What kills the rural model is one caregiver quitting with no backup in the labor pool. What kills the metro model is 620k of basis sitting at three beds filled while metro payroll runs regardless. For an operator who has actually staffed one of these, the risk in rural markets tends to concentrate in labor, while the risk in metro markets concentrates in absorption speed against a heavier basis.
Where would you put a 6-bed RAL?
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