An 18-room boarding house underwrote to 71k NOI and came in at 54k in year two
The gap in a case like this gets blamed on vacancy, and here vacancy is not the problem. It runs around 9 percent against the 12 percent modeled. It is the room-turn cost. Underwriting at $280 per turn because that is what a three-unit residential property costs per unit misses badly. Boarding house rooms turn faster, and cleaning, bedding replacement and minor repairs average closer to $510 a turn. On a house with that much movement, the difference is about $14k a year that was never in the model. The second piece is the city inspection cycle. One compliance visit a year is a common assumption. Four visits is what shows up in year two when two of them are reinspections after deficiency notices, and the city charges $175 per reinspection. The fee is not what does the damage. Each visit triggers a maintenance item that has to be fixed before the follow-up, and those triggered repairs run just over $6k for the year. That is most of the 17k gap right there, an underestimated turn cost and an inspection cycle treated as negligible. The gross rent line lands almost exactly where it was modeled. NOI misses in this strategy usually come from the expense side of a number the operator thought was already tight.