What does "down to the studs" actually include on a 95k shell?

"Down to the studs" describes what's been removed, and it tells you nothing about the condition of what remains. The framing, the foundation, the roof structure, the sewer lateral, the water service from the street and the electrical service to the meter are all still original, still unpriced, and still yours.

On a 1,100 square foot house with renovated comps at 245 to 265, the rough shape of the math is this. Take an ARV of 255. Heavy rehab commonly lands between 20 and 33 percent of ARV, and gut work sits at the top of that range or above it, so 55k to 85k is a reasonable first bracket for putting the house back together. That's rough electrical and plumbing, HVAC, insulation, drywall, kitchen, bath, flooring, trim, paint and permits. Add carry. At 150 days on borrowed money for a project that size you're likely looking at meaningful five figures depending on your rate, which you'd need to confirm with a lender in writing.

Run the standard filter: 255 x 0.7 = 178.5, minus 70k rehab = 108.5 maximum purchase. At 95 the list price sits inside that, which is why the deal looks interesting from the outside. The reason it may still fail is that the bracket is wide and the downside items are invisible in photos. A failed sewer lateral, an undersized electrical service, or a foundation that needs work can each move the number 10k to 30k, and a shell that's been open to the air for two winters has usually collected at least one of them.

Your 30k figure is the real constraint. Full gut work is capital intensive and lenders on this product generally want experience plus cash into the deal. Watching a few of these to their sale prices before you bid is the cheapest education available.

One thing that helped me read these listings: go find what the shell sold for last time. In a lot of states the county recorder or assessor site shows the sale price for free, though about a dozen states don't disclose prices at all, so check yours before assuming.

If that 95k shell traded at 62k eight months ago and somebody demoed it and gave up, that's a story worth knowing. Somebody priced the rebuild and walked.