Working through a Tuesday trustee sale bid with an unseen back of the house
A useful case for thinking through auction bidding discipline: a county trustee sale on a single family home, 1,450 square feet, built 1978, in a working suburb where the last four closed comps ran 255k to 272k. Say ARV is called at 262k because two of those four comps had upgraded kitchens the subject likely lacks. What's known going in: opening bid posted at 141k, a rehab estimate of 52k built from an exterior walk and a look through a window at what appear to be original cabinets and a ceiling water stain below an upstairs bath, a cash cap of 184k (262k minus 52k minus a 26k cushion for profit and costs), and a title search showing the foreclosing first, a second deed of trust from 2021 for about 38k, and an HOA balance of roughly 4,100. Occupancy is unclear: blinds shut, mail not overflowing, one car seen in the driveway recently. The two open questions worth naming explicitly: whether a 26k cushion is adequate on a house seen only from the sidewalk, and whether the recorded HOA balance is the full number or just what has been formally recorded so far. Competitive bidding from other regulars at recent sales in the county is also a live factor. The decision comes down to whether the discipline of a firm cap justifies bidding blind, or whether the safer play is to redirect capital toward REO inventory where interior access is possible before committing. A roof estimated at around eight years old is a minor point in the buyer's favor either way.