How to read the fee stack and downside case in a value add hotel fund deck
A private placement deck for a hotel fund is worth picking apart even for someone not writing a check. Value add, three assets, limited service in secondary markets, one repositioning with a rebrand and room renovation, is a common structure. The operating side is where most investors get lost. A deck showing RevPAR moving from around $78 to $104 over four years, occupancy from 63 percent to 71 percent, and GOP margin from 33 percent to 39 percent, is describing real operating leverage, but between gross revenue and what an investor actually sees there's a management fee line, a franchise fee line, an FF&E reserve typically around 4 percent of revenue, and a separate asset management fee to the sponsor. That's a lot of fee lines to underwrite individually rather than accept as a bundle. The line worth the most scrutiny is usually the downside case on occupancy. Hotels reprice nightly, which sponsors present as upside, but a rate that moves up every night can move down every night too. A downside case that only takes occupancy to 60 percent is optimistic against what 2020 actually produced in this segment, and that gap between the modeled floor and the realized floor is where most hotel fund losses come from. As for whether limited service in secondary markets is a real thesis, it holds up when the operator has genuine cost discipline and franchise relationships, and it's just where the cheap assets are when the deck can't show operating history to back the multiple fee lines it's charging against.