One corporate account fills the hotel, or a hundred leisure bookings do. Which concentration would you rather hold?
I've been reading two offering decks side by side and the demand pages read like different asset classes.
The first is an 80 key select service property where roughly half the room nights over the last three years came from four accounts tied to a single large employer's project work. Occupancy is high, rate is stable, the sponsor treats the contracted volume as a floor and underwrites off it. Weekday heavy, weekends soft. No lease, no contract term I can enforce, just habit and relationships that live with the general manager.
The second is a leisure destination property, 60 keys, where the top ten accounts are maybe eight percent of room nights. Everything else is individual bookings through the brand system and the online travel agencies. Rate is far more volatile month to month, and the seasonality is brutal, two strong quarters carrying two weak ones. But no single call can take out half the business.
My small multifamily instinct says concentration is the thing that kills you, one tenant leaving a four unit building is twenty five percent of the rent. I'm not sure that instinct holds up here. The concentrated hotel has visible, nameable demand and the leisure property's demand is a thousand strangers deciding whether they feel like traveling in a slow economy.
As a passive holder for eight years, which concentration profile would you rather be locked into?
Which demand concentration would you rather hold passively for 8 years?
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