6.8 percent cap on a 22,000 sf building, one tenant, lease expiring in 19 months.
I keep going back and forth on this one. The broker is presenting it as a value-add story because the rent is $1.10 per sf under his comp set, and if the tenant renews at market you are sitting at something closer to a 7.9 on today's purchase price. That math is not wrong. What he does not linger on is that the tenant is a regional furniture distributor, and that category has been getting compressed by the same Amazon logistics expansion that made industrial look so good three years ago. I have no idea whether this specific company is healthy. I have seen two years of occupancy and a rent check that clears, which tells me almost nothing about what they decide in month sixteen. The building is in the Solon area, just east of Cleveland, 24-foot clear, grade level and dock combo, which is a fine but not exceptional spec for that submarket. If they leave I am looking at a lease-up timeline I cannot honestly project, because I watched my own Garfield Heights situation drag longer than anyone told me it would. The Phoenix condo teaches me nothing useful here. The bridge fund I am in does industrial adjacent deals and the returns look cleaner on paper than they feel when you read the actual footnotes on the K-1. So I am trying to figure out whether 19 months of runway is enough time to get ahead of the rollover risk, or whether buying this is really just betting that one furniture company stays solvent and decides my building is still where they want to be.