Hold to a trigger or hold to a clock: what actually ends a land bank position
I've been reading the exit posts in here and they split in a way I didn't expect. Two different disciplines, both defensible.
One camp writes the trigger at purchase. Sewer gets funded within X miles, the comp plan moves the parcel into a growth tier, the first builder inside the ring starts vertical, whatever the specific event is that turns the ground from farmland into inventory. When it fires you list. When it doesn't fire you keep paying taxes, and you accept that the position could run fifteen years or forever. The argument is that appreciation on raw land is lumpy and almost all of it lands in the eighteen months around a single event, so selling on the clock means selling into the flat part of the curve for no reason other than a date you made up.
The other camp sets a hold window at purchase, seven years or ten, and treats it as real. The argument there is that capital has a cost even when nobody is charging you for it, and a trigger that never fires is indistinguishable from being wrong. A clock forces you to recognize the loss, redeploy, and stop telling yourself the sewer is coming next cycle. Every dead parcel I've read about in here was someone holding for a trigger with no expiration on it.
There's a third position I've seen argued, which is that both are theater and the only real rule is you sell when someone offers more than your basis plus accumulated carry plus a hurdle, regardless of what caused the offer.
I don't have a parcel yet so I'm asking the people who do. What actually ended your position, and what do you write down before you buy?
What ends a land bank hold?
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