3,800 letters, three drops, 7,068 spent. Tell me which of my numbers is fiction

It falls apart at 152 responses. That's 152 conversations you personally have to have, mostly with older out of state owners who want to talk for twenty minutes about the brother in law who left them the land. My team handles inbound for a service business and I staff roughly one person per 60 to 80 live calls a week before quality drops off a cliff. Yours will arrive in bursts, day three through day nine after each drop. If you miss the first callback window you paid 0.62 for nothing.

The 1 in 12 isn't your problem. Your answer rate is.

30 percent of assessed value will send wildly different offers to two parcels worth the same money, because assessment practice and reassessment cycles vary by state and by county, and a parcel reassessed last year sits next to one nobody has touched since 2009. Worse, in roughly a dozen states sale prices are not public at all, so if you're in one of those you can't even check your assessed to market ratio without buying data or pulling it from an agent.

What I'd do instead is pull actual closed vacant land sales in the two or three townships you care about, build a price per acre band by road access and acreage bracket, and use assessed value only to sort the list. Anchor the offer to your band.

@ledger the drop schedule matters more than the copy. One letter to 3,800 people is a lottery ticket. Three letters spaced six to eight weeks to the same 3,800 is a campaign, and my experience with tenant mailings is that response on drop two and three usually beats drop one. Don't average 4 percent across all three and then judge the whole thing on drop one.