sold a live-in flip in phoenix last spring, $341k net after holding costs, and the number that got me was how little the renovation actually drove it

honest post and the numbers are clean enough to actually learn from. the $40k lift on $61k in materials plus 22 months of weekend labor is the part that sits with me, that's not a bad outcome but it's not the thesis either. desert ridge adjacent in that window was almost guaranteed appreciation regardless, which makes me wonder how much of your read was location instinct versus renovation conviction, and whether you'd have bought the same house if the neighborhood had been flat. the thing i'd want to know before doing this myself is what the $61k breakdown actually looked like, specifically how much went to the roof versus the kitchen versus the bath, because if the roof was $25k of that and it was purely a cost-of-entry item that buyers expected and didn't pay up for, the cosmetic stuff did most of the value work on a much smaller number.

the $40k lift on a $61k spend is actually a rough return when you frame it that way, 65 cents of value for every dollar in while the market handed you $110k for free. 22 months is long though, my carry clock would've been screaming at month ten. i target six to eight months on anything in the 200 to 300 band or the math starts bleeding.

the desert ridge pull is real and that 2022-2024 window was basically free money for anyone who just held undisturbed in that northeast phoenix corridor. i've been staring at a house i inherited in a similar situation trying to decide if i should renovate before i sell or just let the zip code do what it's going to do. your breakdown is making me lean harder toward the lazy option.

the carry cost number reads low, gilbert comps i tracked ran $1,100 to $1,400 a month all-in through 2023.