City upzoned my two corner lots for four stories with no parking minimum. Sell the entitlement, JV it, or keep sitting on grass?
Two adjacent corner parcels, about 0.6 acres total, in a small city that just rewrote its downtown-adjacent district. Ground floor commercial permitted and encouraged, three residential floors above, parking minimum gone. I've held these eight years on a plan that was basically "wait and see what the code does." The code did something.
The assessed value hasn't moved yet. Two developers have called, unprompted, which tells me they've read the same ordinance I have.
Three paths I can actually see.
Sell now. The entitlement premium is real and it exists whether or not anyone builds. I capture it, pay whatever the tax treatment turns out to be (which is a conversation for my accountant, not this forum), and I'm out of a project I have no capacity to manage. The risk is that I'm selling the cheapest version of the upside, because the developer's whole business is buying entitlement before the market has priced it.
Contribute the land into a JV. I keep exposure to a finished mixed-use building in a district that just got more permissive, without writing a construction check. The risk is that I become a minority partner in a construction project run by someone else, with a capital call structure I'll only half understand, on a building type that everyone agrees is operationally harder than single-use.
Keep holding. Zoning reform generally keeps moving in one direction in cities like this, and the next revision may add height or reduce the ground floor commercial requirement, which would raise the residual land value again. Holding costs me almost nothing, taxes on vacant land here are trivial. The risk is that I'm eight years in on patience and the exit keeps being one code cycle away, and if the ground floor commercial requirement stays as written the buildable program is only worth what the retail rents support.
What actually decides it for me is which risk I think is bigger, mispricing the entitlement today or waiting through a cycle that turns. Curious how the land people here weigh that.
Freshly upzoned corner parcels, no capacity to develop. What do you do?
30 votes