Cut the list from 4,100 to 61, three conversations in week one

I've been the analysis guy in this room for a while so this is me reporting on the cure.

The pull started as everything absentee in two zip codes with 50 percent plus equity, 4,100 records. Useless, and I knew it, which is why I sat on it for two months. What I did instead was stack until the list was small enough that I could treat every name as a person.

Filters, in the order they cut the most: owner tenure 18 years or more, out of state mailing address, no mortgage recorded in the last 12 years, and a utility or vacancy flag on the property. That got me to 340. Then I looked at every one of those 340 on the county site and on street view myself, about six hours over two evenings, and threw out anything that looked maintained or recently updated. 61 left.

61 skip traces cost me about $34. I called across four days, mid-morning and early evening. 22 answered a live person. 3 real conversations. 1 of those became a walkthrough three weeks later and I bought it at 141k, needs about 30k, rents in that pocket at 1,650 for the size. Holding it.

The part that nearly broke it: the seller's payoff was on an old private note from a family member and it took the title company 26 days to get a written statement of the balance. I nearly walked at day 20 because I'd budgeted a 30 day close and my lender's rate lock was on a clock. Confirm your own lender's rules on extensions in writing before you promise anybody a date.

What I'd keep: the six hours of eyeballing. That's the step that turned 340 into a list I was willing to call.

4 replies

1aliyah_bAU2APRO6

Six hours of manual review across 340 records is about a minute each, which sounds right for street view plus a glance at the assessor page. Did you find the eyeballing mostly removed people, or did it change how you opened the call? I've been doing it after the call rather than before and I suspect that's backwards.

1samantha_ruizAU4APRO6

22 live answers off 61 is 36 percent and that's the number I'd want explained. My skip traced numbers connect maybe 15 percent of the time and half of those are wrong-person. Was it the long-tenure filter doing that, older owners on landlines who still pick up?

The other thing I'd push on is the 3 conversations to 1 deal ratio. That's a great week and also a sample of three. Run the same 61-name process four more times and I bet you get a week with zero, and the question is whether you keep doing it through that week.

2sonia_alvarez Get yoursPRO6

The 26 day payoff statement on a private family note is the interesting risk here, and I'd guess most people underwrite that as a zero. If that note had been recorded incorrectly or the family member had died, you're looking at a title problem, not a delay.

What did your rate lock extension actually cost when you priced it? I ask because people describe locks as free optionality and they're generally not.

1devon_pierce Get yoursPRO5

I have 1,100 records and no calls and this post makes me want to delete about 1,050 of them. windlass, the vacancy flag, was that from the platform or did you verify it yourself? Mine flags houses that are clearly occupied and I've stopped trusting it.

Cut the list from 4,100 to 61, three conversations in week one

4 replies