6.8% unlevered on a lot I like, against demand I can't model
I keep going back and forth on this one and now I have to pick a lane. Surface lot, 64 spaces, three blocks from a hospital campus and a transit stop. Asking $940k. My underwriting, using actual collections rather than the seller's projection, gets me to about $64k net before debt. So 6.8% unlevered.
If I put debt on it, the cash-on-cash looks better, obviously, and I'd own it with a lot less of my own money in. But the thing I cannot underwrite is demand ten years out. The hospital isn't going anywhere soon. Commuter patterns, remote work at the office buildings nearby, and whatever ride-hailing and eventually autonomous vehicles do to who parks where, all of that is guesswork. Debt service doesn't care about guesswork.
The counterargument I keep making to myself is that the dirt is the floor. If parking revenue drops 40%, the land three blocks from a hospital is still land, and a lender with a first position on it isn't in a terrible spot either.
So: cash, moderate debt, or as much debt as someone will write? And if the answer is cash, is 6.8% enough to lock up $940k?
How would you capitalize a 64-space lot at 6.8% unlevered?
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