Base case 16.4, downside 9.1. Showing both cost me an investor and got me two better ones
On the last deal I put a base case and a downside side by side on the same page of the investor memo. Base was a 16.4 net IRR to LP with 2 percent rent growth and a 25 basis point cap expansion at exit. Downside was 9.1 with flat rents for two years and 75 basis points of expansion. One investor who had been in the prior deal read it and passed, and said outright that the low number scared him. Two others came back with questions about the reserve schedule and the insurance line that nobody had ever asked me before, and both funded. Net dollars raised were about the same. So I can't tell if I bought better investors or just did more work for the same money. The argument for one clean base case is that everyone else in the market presents one, and putting a 9 next to a 16 anchors people on the 9 without them understanding the assumptions that produced it. The argument for the range is that the range is the truth and the downside is the number that determines whether the deal survives. Sensitivity tables are the third option and in my experience LPs at the 50k level don't read them. Where does the room land on what belongs in the memo itself rather than answered on a call.
What return presentation belongs in the investor memo?
17 votes