Down here means headcount and ease of entry, not the disappearance of the role. Buyers still need someone to represent them, and the evidence since the settlement rules took effect is that the fee itself has barely moved. Redfin's analysis put average buyer-agent commissions near 2.4 percent in early 2025, essentially where they sat before, and a Federal Reserve note described commissions as possibly down somewhat while staying at relatively high levels. So the pot didn't shrink much.
The pressure is on who gets to eat from it. Two things changed. Compensation is now a written negotiation between you and your buyer before you show a house, which means you have to explain your fee out loud in the first meeting. And the offers of compensation that used to sit on the MLS are gone, so every deal involves finding out what the listing side will fund. Both of those favor agents who do this full time and have a clear answer ready.
That's what ease of entry refers to. The exam isn't getting harder. The first year is, because the part-time agent who used to do two deals a year for friends now has to have the compensation conversation twice and lose one of them.
What that suggests if you're starting: pick something you can be specifically useful about rather than being a generalist in a crowded market. Investor buyers, a particular neighborhood, new construction, relocation. The agents feeling the squeeze least are the ones a buyer can describe in one sentence.
