I started doing land deals because my GC margins got squeezed and I thought I already knew how to read land

So the story in this room is that you find unmaintained rural parcels, absentee owners, tax stress, and you can buy at 30 to 40 cents on the dollar all day. That held up in the counties I was watching in 2021 and most of 2022. I was pulling lists in Osage County, Oklahoma and a few parcels in eastern New Mexico, running the math, convincing myself I understood the asset because I've built on raw land my whole career. What I didn't account for is that by late 2023 every GC I know who slowed down on builds started looking at exactly this same play, plus the online course crowd came in thick, and now I'm seeing accepted offers on 20 acre parcels in those same counties at 65 cents on the dollar from people who don't know what a perc test costs. The discount that made the model work just isn't there the way I kept reading about it. I closed one deal in February, 14.3 acres outside Guthrie, paid $11,200, listed with seller finance at $24,500 and it moved in six weeks, so the exit still works fine. The problem is finding the next one at a number that makes sense when everyone with a VA loan rejection and a laptop thinks they're a land investor now. I know how to build things. I don't yet know how to find the motivated seller before someone else gets there at a bad price and teaches themselves a lesson.