Does the buyer's credit history actually matter when I'm the one holding the note forever
Twelve years of appraising and I still can't settle this for myself. I've got a 3-bed in Maplewood I'm thinking about carrying, asking $279,000, and two interested buyers. One has a 740, stable W-2, five years at the same employer, wants 10% down. The other has a 610, self-employed two years, offering 15% down, which is an extra $13,950 in my pocket at closing. The rate I'd write is 6.75% on a 20-year am with a 7-year balloon either way, so the monthly difference is basically zero. On paper the stronger credit buyer is the obvious call, but I'm not selling this to a bank. I'm holding it. If the 610 guy makes every payment for seven years, his credit in 2018 means nothing to me by then. What actually matters to me is whether he services the debt, and I can't pull that from a score. The 10% guy walks away more easily if the neighborhood softens, 10% down on $279,000 is $27,900, not a lot of skin if values slip 8%. The 15% guy has $41,850 in from day one. I'm an appraiser so I know what this house does in a down market, and I'd rather have that cushion than a number on a report. My attorney says underwrite the collateral, not the borrower, and at $279,000 I'm already below what I think the replacement cost floor is, so maybe the score is just noise. Has anyone actually tracked defaults on notes they've carried against what the buyer's credit looked like at origination?