The balloon date is the number I see structured wrong most often on carried notes
A five year balloon felt conservative when rates were low and refinancing was easy. The assumption behind it was that the buyer would qualify for conventional financing before the balloon hit, and in most markets from 2012 to 2021 that assumption held. It is not holding the same way now, and I am seeing notes structured in 2021 and 2022 where the balloon lands in 2026 or 2027 with a borrower who has paid perfectly but whose income picture or the current rate environment makes a bank takeout unlikely. The seller who created that note is not in default territory yet, but the balloon clause is doing something the original deal did not price in: it is converting a performing note into a negotiation.
The fix is not always a longer term. A longer amortization with a later balloon raises the unpaid balance at maturity, which can matter if the property has not appreciated enough to support a refinance. What actually changes the risk profile is tying the balloon trigger to a condition the borrower can demonstrate rather than a date on a calendar, or building in a one-time extension option at a stepped-up rate so the seller captures more yield if the takeout slips. Neither of those makes the paper easier to sell to a note buyer, which is its own tradeoff, but for a seller who expects to hold, the extension clause can prevent a forced workout.
The case worth studying is a note written at 6.5 percent with a five year balloon where the borrower is current and the property is worth more than the sale price. The seller looks fine on paper. But if the balloon hits and the borrower cannot refi, the seller's options are foreclose on a performing borrower, discount and sell the note in a distressed negotiation, or extend informally without paperwork that protects either party. None of those is the outcome the original structure implied.
What does the balloon date on a note you are holding or about to create look like relative to where you think that borrower realistically refinances?