The demographics looked unarguable and I still lost money
I wanted the version of this that just works. Aging population, supply growth at a two-decade low, occupancy heading toward records. That's about as clean a story as I've found in real estate and I put $25k into a small fund buying 55-plus communities on the strength of it.
Where it went wrong is that the fund bought three assets in one metro. All three within about eleven miles. Two of them opened lease-up within four months of each other. So the fund's own assets were competing for the same 55-plus renters in the same submarket, and concessions started immediately. Two months free on a twelve month lease, which wiped out the rent premium the whole thesis rested on.
The demographics were right nationally. They were not right at eleven miles. Cost me about $9k of the $25k on paper so far, and no distributions in fourteen months.
What I'd do differently: ask where the assets are relative to each other and to any permitted competing project, before signing anything. National demand numbers tell you nothing about whether two of your own buildings are going to undercut each other.