When a foreclosure quote and an heir's payoff offer arrive in the same week, which path actually wins
A common bind in tax lien investing: a certificate purchased three years ago for 2,410 on a small frame house on a third of an acre, statutory rate 12 percent, with subsequent taxes paid each year, say 1,190, 1,240 and 1,305, bringing principal invested to roughly 6,145. The county's payoff calculator shows accrued interest bringing the total to about 8,720 as of this month. The redemption period has expired and a deed application is in process, with an attorney's estimate of 4,800 to 6,500 depending on how many parties require service and whether anything gets contested. A mortgage of record from 2009 sits on title, the servicer has been transferred twice, and there is a probate wrinkle because the record owner died in 2021 and the estate was never properly opened. Notice requirements on cases like this vary by state, and in the stricter jurisdictions on due process, that legal estimate is not padding, it reflects what the work actually costs. Then an heir calls wanting to redeem, offering to gather 9,500 in about 45 days, though the actual statutory payoff of 8,720 would go through the treasurer rather than to the investor directly, making the 9,500 figure simply her personal budget rather than the required amount. The two paths worth weighing: take the redemption and collect roughly 8,720 against 6,145 invested, about 2,575 of gain over three years, somewhere near 13 percent simple on the original outlay and less on the average balance since later subs were added later. That outcome is solid and low risk. Or push the foreclosure, spend 4,800 to 6,500 in legal fees, and if it clears end up around 12,000 all in on a house that a local wholesaler might value at 58,000 to 65,000 as is. The risk in that path is a messy probate or a servicer that wakes up and pays the taxes to protect its lien position, which would mean spending legal money on a foreclosure for a redemption that was available all along. Weighing patience against a materially larger but less certain upside is the real decision in a case like this, and it usually comes down to how much confidence there is in the title work already done.