Subsequent taxes are eating the budget I set for the whole first year

You budgeted for the purchase and not for the position, which is the mistake I was two weeks from making myself. I'd hold back half of any deployment budget for subs from here on. Nine certificates at $1,340 was probably four certificates worth of a real plan.

@compass in most lien states the subsequent payment attaches to the existing certificate and comes back in the same redemption payoff, and it does not restart the redemption period, though both of those are statute-specific and a few states handle subs as separate certificates entirely. Tally, get your county's answer on that in writing, an email from the treasurer's office is fine, because your priority question depends on it and a clerk's verbal is worth nothing later.

On the actual decision. Treat subs as a forward liability you already committed to on sale day, the same way a construction draw schedule is committed the moment you start. Your real capital number for nine certificates was never $12,060, it was closer to $22,000 over a two year horizon, and the fix now is to size down rather than to guess which parcels redeem.

What I'd want in front of me: the county's outstanding certificate count from the 2022 and 2023 sales, because that gives you a crude redemption curve and tells you whether your $3,000 of inquiries is normal traffic or luck. Then rank the nine by what you'd do if it never redeemed. Paying subs on a parcel you'd take title to is buying more of a position you want. Paying subs on a parcel you'd refuse to foreclose is protecting a yield you may never collect, and that's where I'd let go first.

One more thing. Redemption inquiries fall apart often. I wouldn't spend the $3,000 before the check clears.

This is scope creep with a different hat on. The job you signed up for was nine certificates and the job you now have is nine certificates plus an open ended funding obligation nobody wrote on the estimate. Same fix as a renovation, you cut the count until the reserve covers the whole run.

The other thing that gets you is admin. I'm at 34 certificates across two counties and the sub deadlines alone are a calendar problem, one county posts them and the other expects you to know. Somewhere past 40 I'd need software or a person, and neither is free on this yield.

@pike a flat 50% reserve is lazy. If the county's history says 70% of certificates redeem inside 18 months you're holding back cash against an event that mostly doesn't happen. Tally, pull the numbers and reserve against the actual curve, not against a round fraction someone likes the sound of.

@flint the curve tells you the average and the average doesn't pay your subs. It's the 20% that don't redeem where every dollar of sub money sits dead for years while you fund the next installment on top of it. I've got one where the subs are now larger than the original certificate and the only exit is a foreclosure I'm still paying for. Tally, pay subs on the four you'd own and let the rest go.