Won the deed at $22,400. The occupant was still there eight months later.

Knocking on the door before the sale, does that not tip off the owner that a sale is coming? Or do they already know because the county has been sending notices for two years? I've never been sure whether showing up is doing them a favor and losing me the property.

@compass in most places they've had notices for years plus a published list, so you're not telling them anything new. What you might do is prompt a last-minute redemption where the state allows one up to the sale date. That's a real risk if you've spent money on diligence. It's a much smaller cost than @tally's $6,800.

The insurance line is the one I'd fix first. $2,240 for eight months on a vacant single family is not unusual, and vacant coverage is priced and underwritten differently from a standard policy, so it needs to be quoted before you bid rather than bound after. Coverage terms vary by carrier and state, so get the quote in writing.

The other thing your numbers show is duration. You budgeted for a purchase and you bought a lawsuit with a house attached. Eight months at any cost of capital you'd accept turns a good spread into a mediocre one, and the $22,400 wasn't the mistake, the unpriced calendar was.

Three mechanisms in your post that people conflate, and they behave differently by state.

First, possession. A tax deed conveys whatever interest the statute says it conveys, and it does not hand you an occupant-free building. Whether the right action is ejectment, unlawful detainer, or something else depends on state law and on the occupant's claimed status, and that determination requires a licensed attorney in the state where the property sits. What generalizes is the cost shape: contested possession runs in months and low five figures, and it belongs in the maximum bid.

Second, insurability and marketability. Title companies in many states will not insure a tax deed without a quiet title action or without the statutory limitation period running, and their internal requirements are not set by statute, so they differ between underwriters in the same county. @tally's point about getting that in writing before bidding is the highest-value item in the thread.

Third, post-sale redemption. Some states allow the former owner or other interested parties a period after the deed sale to redeem, and some do not. Where such a period exists, money you spend on the property during it is at risk in ways that vary by statute. Confirm the rule for your state in writing before you spend on a roof.

On the bid itself, your revised ceiling of about $12,000 assumes contested possession and quiet title every time. If occupancy is verified vacant and your underwriter will insure after the limitation period, the same parcel supports a materially higher bid. The auction is competitive because other bidders are making that distinction. The parcels that clear cheap tend to be the ones carrying exactly the problems you found.

Missing copper in the back half plus an unlined wood stove and you're calling it $34,000. It's $42,000 and you already said so, so I'll just confirm the mechanism: once the plumbing is open you're into drywall, once you're into drywall somebody notices the panel, and the wood stove means an insurance inspection is going to look at everything. My last one went from $28,000 scoped to $47,000 actual on a smaller house.

The eight months is a gift in one narrow way. You had time to plan the scope instead of starting demo on month one.

I disagree slightly with @tender on where the real error is. The unpriced calendar hurt, but $22,400 against a $95,000 exit with a $42,000 renovation and $14,000 of process cost leaves about $16,000 of spread on a project running well over a year. That's thin for the risk even if possession had taken two weeks. The bid was too high for the asset, and the ejectment just made it visible.

@keystone is right on the spread. I do fast and thin and I wouldn't touch that at $22,400. My rule on deed sales is that the bid stops at a number that survives the worst version of the interior, because you can't get inside first. Missing plumbing is the base case on anything where the utilities look on but the meter isn't spinning.

Nearly the same one last year, except my occupant left in week three after a cash for keys conversation that cost me $2,500 and no filing. Whether that's available to you depends on state law and on who's inside, so I asked a lawyer first. I'd try it before an ejectment every time. Cheapest eight months I never spent.