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A forester with a can of orange paint showed up to our hunting land walk

My coworker has been talking about buying hunting land for two years and last month he actually got serious about a piece, so I tagged along because I had nothing else going on Saturday. I figured we'd walk around, look at a creek, argue about the price on the drive home.

Instead there was a forester waiting at the gate. Older guy, canvas pants, a can of orange spray paint on his belt and one of those D-tape things for measuring trunks. He worked for the seller, and he did not care at all that we were two people who had never bought anything with a tree on it.

He walked us up a hill and started tapping trunks with the back of his hand like he was checking melons. Said the stand was planted in 2003, got thinned once already, and you could see it in the spacing. Then he said the part I keep thinking about: the seller isn't harvesting right now because prices are soft, and the trees just keep getting bigger while he waits. The wood gets more valuable as it gets older because more of it grades out as sawtimber instead of pulp.

I asked what happens if prices are still soft in five years. He shrugged and said then it's a bigger tree.

My coworker didn't buy it. Somebody else did, a week later, cash. But I drove home thinking about an asset where doing nothing is an actual strategy and not just procrastination.

11 replies

Doing nothing as a strategy is the part that gets me. Every unit I own punishes me for waiting. A leak waits worse, a vacancy waits worse, a tenant issue waits worse. Trees are the only thing I've heard of where the clock is on your side.

kestrel what was the ask on it? I have no frame of reference for what 60 acres with a 22 year old stand goes for and I'd like one even if I never buy.

Dumb question and I'm asking it anyway. If the trees keep getting more valuable, why does anyone ever cut them? There has to be a top to that.

@compass growth rate per acre falls off as the stand ages, and you've got money tied up in dirt the whole time. So the deferral option is real but it isn't free, you're paying for it in time. The forester's shrug was a good answer for a soft-price year and a bad answer for a fifteen year hold with no plan.

Guy shows up with spray paint and a tape and knows more about the asset than everybody standing there. I've had that exact feeling with a structural engineer in a crawlspace.

I didn't know there was a difference between pulp and sawtimber until this post. Had to look it up. Feels like every corner of this business has its own two words for the same tree.

Around me the timber piece is almost secondary at this point. People buy the acres to hunt on and the trees come along with it, and the recreational buyers set the price. Which is great if you're selling and confusing if you're trying to underwrite it off the wood.