Fourth one closed. First time the refinance landed where I said it would.

The bit that jumps out is that you did three of these badly first. That's the part the how-to content never includes. Were the three stuck deals stuck for the same reason each time?

11k left in on a house that clears 450 a month sounds fine to me, but I want to understand whether this repeats or whether you got a friendly appraiser. If your next one appraises at 205 like your model said, you're leaving what, 20k in? Does the deal still work for you then, or does the whole thing depend on the appraisal beating your own number?

You held the contingency and then spent 3,800 of it plus a 5,200 change order, which means the contingency was already gone and you funded the rest from somewhere. Where did the extra come from, the rehab budget line or your pocket? I ask because I've told myself I held a contingency twice and both times I'd actually just moved money around.

@verity's question is mine. Run it at a 199k appraisal for me. 75 percent is 149k, payoff is 154k, so you'd have had to bring money to the refinance table. That's the scenario I can't get comfortable with, because nothing in your process prevents it, you just get told a number by a stranger.

The 5,200 sheathing find in week two is the normal shape of a roof job on an older brick house, and I'd add that the crew telling you in week two instead of at final invoice is worth a lot. On my team we call before we buy material. Plenty of outfits don't and you find out when the bill arrives 5,200 heavier.

Why refinance at 75 percent instead of taking the highest amount someone would lend you? If more cash out means less trapped capital, wouldn't you want the biggest loan you could get?

@rigging because the loan has to be paid by the rent every month for years and the cash out is a one time event. At 1,795 rent he's already at about 75 percent of gross going to the payment. Push the loan higher and the house stops covering itself the first time a furnace goes.

@keystone I'd hold this one a long time rather than treat it as the funding source for number five. But that's my bias, patience is basically my whole strategy.

I'll ask the one I would have kept to myself: how do you underwrite an ARV at all when you're new and don't have an agent who'll tell you what the good ones sell for? Keystone says he used the worst recent sale that looked like his house after rehab, and I don't know where I'd even get that list. Also I've read that a dozen or so states don't publish sale prices publicly at all, which makes me wonder what people do there.

Scope creep is my whole subject and the interesting decision here is the kitchen. You had a 5,200 hole in week two and you left the kitchen alone. Most people cut the kitchen, because it's the biggest reversible line, and then the appraisal comes back and they can't explain why. What did the kitchen actually cost, and how did you decide it was the line that had to survive?

Where did this one come from? Three of my four leads are agent emails and everyone tells me that's the worst source, but nobody says what replaced it for them.