My comps on a dispo deal last week came in $23k under what the contract seller gave me, and I still moved it.
Buyer already knew the market, ran his own numbers before I even sent the address, and came back with an offer $6k below the contract price. Contract seller ate $4k of that and I adjusted my fee down $2k to get it closed. Total spread was $31k on a property in Racine County, Wisconsin, went under contract at $148k, closed at $144k, end buyer's all-in landed around $171k against an ARV I pulled at $193k. That spread still worked for everyone because the buyer sources his own crews and his rehab number was $18k under what a stranger would have paid.
The part that keeps sitting with me is that the deal moved because the buyer did not trust my ARV and I did not argue with him. He called a contractor he has used seventeen times and confirmed scope before he countered. That thirty-six hour window where he was doing that due diligence is the part that would have killed the deal if I had pushed for a forty-eight hour answer. I have done that before and watched buyers walk because they felt rushed on a number they could not verify fast enough.
What I am trying to figure out is whether having a buyer who underwrites independently is actually a liability for dispo spreads in the long run, or whether it protects the whole chain when the contract seller's ARV is off. This one ended fine. But the buyer's number and the contract seller's number were $23k apart, and I was standing in the middle of that with no real leverage in either direction.