A retainer offer with 30% of the fee tied to student completion I don't control
An operator with about 400 people in his paid community wants me to build and run the onboarding curriculum for new members. Terms as sent: $2,500 a month for 12 months, six modules plus a weekly live intake call, he owns the recordings outright, and 30% of each month's fee is held back if 60 day completion falls under 60%.
The part I keep rereading is that his sales page promises pretty aggressive stuff and the people who buy off that page are the same people I'd be measured on. He picks them. I get scored on them. He also wants a 25 mile non-compete on any education product for 18 months after we're done, which covers the market I actually live in.
My math on the work: 90 to 110 hours to build, then maybe 20 hours a month to run. So year one is roughly $30,000 for around 340 hours if the holdback never triggers, and $25,500 if it triggers every month. Call it $75 to $88 an hour, and I hand over the asset at the end.
What I can't decide is whether to counter on the holdback, the ownership, or the non-compete. Push on all three and I think he walks. Which one costs me the most if I let it stand?