340 MLS rows later, should I even be looking on the MLS?

My list is about 600 names now and I haven't bought anything either, so take this as one preparer to another. What changed my hit rate on the MLS was stopping the search on new listings. I only look at things over 45 days on market, price drops, and listings that came back after a failed inspection. Those sellers have already learned what their house is worth and my number stops being an insult.

On the disclosure point, pike, that varies by state and it matters more than people say. Some states require a seller disclosure form on a residential sale whether or not there's an agent, others are basically caveat emptor with a lead paint federal overlay, so check what your state actually requires before you decide the off-market route costs you information. A local attorney can tell you in one call.

Four out of 340 doesn't automatically mean your rule is broken. It might mean your ARV is conservative, which is a better problem than the reverse.

Your 340 rows are a data set and you're not using it. Go back and find out what the four that penciled had in common, and separately, what the two you lost actually sold for and what they later resold for after renovation. If the winning buyer paid 12 over your max and resold at your ARV, your ARV is too low. If they paid 12 over and resold 20 above your ARV, your comp selection is wrong.

One caution on that exercise. Roughly a dozen states don't make sale prices public at all, so depending on where you are you may need an agent to pull closed prices from the MLS rather than the assessor site.

On the sourcing question, the number that decides it isn't skill, it's cost per deal. Mailers at scale run real money before the first contract and you should price that campaign fully before you call it the cheap route. An MLS deal at 74 percent of ARV with a known scope can beat an off-market deal at 62 percent where you missed the sewer line, and I've funded both versions.