My lumber package repriced 9 percent between two spec houses

85k gross on 15 months with a 460k basis is roughly 18 percent on cost before your own time, and it's before any price concession, any commission if you use one, and any overrun. I hit this same ceiling last year on my third project and what I learned is that the margin that looks acceptable in the model is the margin that goes to zero the first time something real happens.

I'd start B only if I could get the basis under 440. That means either the lot was cheaper than 88 (it wasn't, you already own it) or the build comes down. Can you value engineer the mirrored plan? Same footprint, cheaper roof geometry, drop a bump-out. On my last one I took 9k out of the hard cost by simplifying the roof and nobody who walked through it noticed.

Coming from zero here so tell me if this is a dumb read, but the 9 percent framing reprice, is that a quote you can still lock? Or is it a moving number you'd be exposed to all the way through framing? I'd think whether you can fix that price changes the whole decision.

@ember that's not a dumb read at all, it's the question I'd want answered too. @quarry, if your supplier will hold that package price for 60 days in writing, House B's budget has a floor. If he won't, your 338 is a guess and the real number could be 350.

Separately, the guy three streets over cutting 15k and still sitting is the data point I'd weight highest. That's not your cost problem, that's the market telling you 545 has a soft ceiling. Two unsold houses in a submarket where the last comparable seller had to discount sounds like the thing you'd write a post about in November regretting.

What's your absorption actually look like? Not last summer's four closings, but the current count of active listings in that price band and how many closed in the last 90 days. If there are 11 active and 3 closed a quarter you've got a year of standing inventory ahead of you and House B is a bet on 2027 buyers.

I'd also want to know your personal liquidity outside the projects. Not the number, just whether you can carry both for six months past your plan without selling something. That's the question that decides this more than the margin does.

One option nobody's raised. If House A sits, what does it rent for? I manage in a market where builders have gone ahead and leased finished specs at a loss to interest to stop the bleeding while they wait. A 545k house probably rents for 2,900 to 3,300 depending on market, and your interest alone on 340k at 9.75 is about 2,760 a month. So renting roughly covers debt service and nothing else, and now you've got a lease encumbering your sale and a tenant-occupied showing problem.

It's a real exit, it's just a bad one. Worth pricing it so you know what your floor looks like before you commit to B.

@trellis that's useful even as a bad exit, because it turns "how long can I sit" from a feeling into a number.

I've spent a year not pulling triggers so take this with that context, but I think you're framing it as A/B when there's a third thing: start B on a stretched schedule. Break ground, get the foundation and rough-in done, then slow-walk finishes until A closes. You hold the permit, you keep the framer engaged for a few weeks, and you don't commit the expensive half of the budget (cabinets, flooring, fixtures, appliances) until you have a data point from A.

The cost is carry on partial draws and a house sitting half done, which invites weather damage and theft. But it beats a binary.

@windlass I've built on that schedule and it's more expensive than it sounds. You demobilize and remobilize every trade, and each of those restarts costs you a slot in your subs' queue. When 94 percent of contractors say they can't fill positions, the sub who moves on to another job doesn't come back on your timeline, he comes back on his. I've seen a two week pause turn into seven.

@quarry, the concrete number moving from 11.40 to 12.60 because he lost two guys is the tell in your whole post. That's not a materials cycle, that's a labor supply problem and it's structural. Price your next 24 months assuming subs get more expensive, not less.

On value engineering, @keystone is right about roof geometry. I'd add: check what your plan spends on window count and header spans. Mirrored plans often end up with a worse orientation and people add glass to fix it.

Every unit I've bought has taught me the same lesson, which is that the second project is where you find out whether the first one was skill. You've got 218k in the ground on A and no closing yet. You don't know your actual cost to complete, your actual days on market, or your actual net at the closing table. Starting B before A closes means you're scaling a process you haven't measured once.

I'd sit on the lot, eat the 640 a month, and pay whatever the permit extension costs. That's maybe 8 or 9k of dead money over a year. Cheap tuition compared to two unsold houses.

The permit clock is usually less fatal than people think, though it varies by state and by local jurisdiction, so call your building department and ask exactly what keeps it alive and what an extension costs in writing. In a lot of places a permit stays valid as long as work is progressing on some interval, and an inspection on a footing can restart the clock. Some jurisdictions charge almost nothing to extend.

Holding a paid-for lot next to your own completed spec isn't a bad position. You're the one seller in the submarket who can watch A's absorption and then start B with real pricing information. Land's patient in a way that a framed house isn't.