Everyone says wait for vacancy to peak. Do I actually need to wait?

I read the same forecast twice and the thing that stuck with me the second time is that the peak is a national number. My little market doesn't have a peak, it has whoever built the last building. So I'm not sure waiting for mid-2026 tells you anything about the specific block you'd be buying on.

In the rural markets I look at there wasn't much of a boom, so there isn't much of a correction either. The 6.7 percent figure is basically a story about places with institutional developers. Where I am, the constraint is that nobody built anything since 2008 and the existing stock is 18 foot clear with one dock door. Different problem entirely. If you're buying somewhere with no new supply pipeline, waiting for the national vacancy peak just costs you rent.

My customers are the tenants in these buildings, and the ones shopping right now are picky about dock doors and power and they will absolutely wait for a better deal. That's the softness you're describing from the other side. It doesn't feel like a market where a first-time owner gets a quick lease-up on an older box, quill. It does feel like a market where you can buy the older box cheaply if you're honest with yourself about carrying it empty.

I'd rather buy something already leased to a tenant who has been there nine years and stop trying to time anything. The whole timing question only matters if you're buying vacant or near-vacant space. Buy in-place income at a price that works on today's rent, and whether vacancy peaks in March or September of 2026 stops being your problem.