Lift station or 40 fewer lots: my engineer priced both and I like neither

I'm new and reading this twice, so a basic question. Why is the lift station cost spread only across the 96 lots and not all 296? If the whole subdivision is one project, isn't every lot carrying every cost?

juniper, allocating it to the 96 answers whether that piece of ground is worth developing at all, which is the decision in front of him. Spread across 296 it's about $5,100 a lot and disappears into the model.

quarry, the thing I'd want scoped in Option C is who owns the liability long term. A shared lift station between two HOAs with no clear maintenance and replacement agreement is the sort of thing that sits fine for eight years and then becomes a lawsuit when the pumps need replacing. If the city will accept and maintain the station, that's a different conversation than two private associations sharing it.

I follow maybe half of this but the piece I can see clearly is timing. You have a three week engineering deadline and Option C requires a private negotiation with a neighbor plus a city approval. Those don't happen in three weeks. So either you can phase your way out of needing the answer now, or C isn't actually on the table for this decision.

vellum's point is the real one. Can you replat Phase 2 to sit entirely in the gravity area and push the north 96 to Phase 4? You said 70 percent of the site falls south. That's roughly 200 lots of gravity-served ground, and you're only 88 lots in. If your paving window pressure is about Phase 2 specifically, there may be two or three more phases of work you can do before the ridge question has to be answered.

That buys you a year to negotiate the capacity share, get more perc data, and see where rates and lot prices sit. It costs you some mobilization inefficiency and possibly a longer haul for dirt balance.

The other thing I'd check is your loan documents. Development loans often include a release price per lot and sometimes a minimum lot delivery schedule tied to phases as approved. If your loan agreement contemplates 296 lots and a specific phasing plan, changing the plan may need lender consent, and asking for that consent reopens the whole file. Read the covenants before you commit to a resequence, and confirm anything you're relying on in writing with the lender.

The number I'd stress test is the $78,000 to $82,000 finished lot price, because sable's resequence pushes those 96 lots two years out and you'd be underwriting them at today's price. Your first phase is closing at $79,500 now, which is real. Two years out on 62 foot lots is a forecast. At $56,600 all in you have room for a soft market, but not much room if the lift station comes in over the $1.5 million you're carrying.