Preferred capital into a nine lot split where I can't verify a single closed lot price
Sponsor I've done one small deal with wants $220,000 of preferred capital at 11% accrued, no current pay, into an 86 acre split. I built the model off his assumptions and then started pulling it apart. Posting it because the thing that bothers me isn't in the spreadsheet.
His numbers. 86 acres at $602,000, so $7,000 an acre. Nine lots averaging 8.7 acres after right of way. Shared gravel road, 1,900 feet, engineering and construction $310,000 all in. Retail $148,000 a lot, $1,332,000 gross, 6% commissions of $80,000. Add $140,000 of soft costs and carry over 22 months and total capitalization is $1,052,000 against $1,252,000 net proceeds. Call it $200,000 of profit. My pref accrues about $44,000 over the life if it runs the full 22 months, so on paper there's roughly 4.5x coverage on my accrued interest and the profit is his.
Capital stack is $602k land with $420k of it seller carry, my $220k, and $180k of his cash. My money funds the road.
Absorption in his model is nine lots in ten months starting at month 12.
Here's my problem. My state doesn't make sale prices public. I have active listings and I have what two agents told me on the phone, and both of those numbers are the sponsor's own listing comps. Two 8 to 10 acre lots listed at $155k and $149k, one of them listed 140 days. I cannot see a single closed price. The whole $200,000 of profit is $148k times nine, and if the real clearing price is $126k the deal returns $1,134,000 gross and the profit line is gone before my pref is paid.
So the decision. Fund at 11% flat and treat the seller carry plus his $180k as the cushion, or push for something structural. He's told me he doesn't want per-lot release language because his seller carry note already has payoff terms and he doesn't want two schedules to satisfy.
What's wrong with this.