Is Jacksonville actually underwritten for 2025 or are the asking prices still 2022 math

The sellers haven't caught up and most of them won't until they have to, meaning a refinance wall or a vacancy problem forces their hand. Six months of watching is about where I am too, different market but same math problem. The thing nobody mentions until it hits them is that the insurance gap you found isn't just a pricing issue, it's a lender trigger, because DSCR lenders are now requiring you to escrow actual quoted insurance not the seller's number, so even if you negotiate the price down to where the cap rate looks acceptable on paper, the lender's DSCR calc uses the real premium and the deal dies at underwriting anyway. I've seen guys get to appraisal on a renegotiated price and still get kicked because the underwriter plugged in a current wind/hail quote that the seller never budgeted for. On your specific Springfield building, 875 was probably still generous at a 28,400 insurance number, because you're still sitting around a 6.4 cap and the vintage adds deferred maintenance risk that doesn't show in any pro forma. I'd wait, personally, and watch for the ones that have been sitting 90-plus days with a price drop already on record, those sellers are usually past the denial stage.

Springfield specifically is tricky because a lot of that pre-1985 stock was converted or renovated during the 2018 to 2021 run-up and sellers are still anchored to what their buddy got in 2022. That 28,400 insurance quote is not even the ceiling. I manage units in Duval County and one owner got hit with 34k on a 10-unit built in 1979 after their carrier non-renewed mid-policy last spring. The insurance market in Florida is not stabilizing the way national headlines suggest, at least not for older wood-frame multifamily. Your 44 percent expense load is honest, the 32 percent is a fantasy someone built in Excel.

The cap rate compression you're describing is real and I don't think Jacksonville corrects fast. Sellers in that market tend to hold rather than reprice, which means deals just sit and the motivated ones sell to cash buyers at 6.1 or worse. If your alternative capital deployment gets you within a point of that yield with less hair on it, that math is hard to argue with. Some of these Springfield listings have been sitting 180 plus days already and the repricing, when it happens, tends to happen fast and all at once.

The insurance gap you found is not a seller error, it's a deliberate pro forma move that's become almost standard on Jacksonville listings right now. I've seen the same 14 to 15k placeholder on three different listings in Duval this year, all of them quoting pre-Ian renewal numbers that nobody can actually get anymore.

The cap rate compression you're describing hasn't cleared yet because a meaningful chunk of the inventory is held by mom and pop operators who bought in 2018 to 2020 and have no mortgage pressure forcing them to move, so they can just sit. That's different from a market like Memphis where there's been more institutional churn and repricing has actually happened.

Your 875 offer wasn't crazy, it's roughly where the math lands if you underwrite insurance honestly and hold a 7.5 percent debt cost, but sellers in Springfield are watching each other and nobody wants to be the first to print a real number.