A 90 day standstill and a cure right I can't price
I'm doing the analyst work on a $32M refinance for a small sponsor and the mezz piece is where I'm stuck. Senior is quoted at 58% of value, mezz takes it to 76%, coupon 12.75% with 2 points in and a 1 point exit. Targeted mezz IRR comes out around 13.5% if it runs the full three years.
The intercreditor draft came back last week. The mezz lender's cure right is capped at four consecutive monthly payments and six in total over the term, and there's a 90 day standstill before they can start a UCC foreclosure on the pledged LLC interests. Senior also has a purchase option on the mezz note at par plus accrued if the mezz declares a default first.
What I can't work out is how to value that cure right when I model a downside. If NOI drops 12% the senior coverage breaks before the mezz coupon does, so the mezz has to fund senior debt service out of pocket to keep the equity pledge alive. Four months of senior payments on a $19M loan is real money that isn't in anyone's return model.
We don't control the mezz side, we're the borrower. But the sponsor is asking whether to push back on the cure cap or on the standstill length, and pushing on both will cost us pricing. I don't know which one actually matters more to a mezz lender's willingness to sit still in a bad quarter. Anyone been on the other side of this?