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StoryMortgage REITs (mREITs)

My first mREIT cut its dividend twice in 14 months and I held through both

Bought in around Q1 2020, small position, about 22k in a non-hybrid agency name. First cut came April 2020, second that October. I did not add, I did not sell. I just watched book value and waited. By mid-2021 the dividend had partially recovered and book was closer to where I'd originally estimated fair value. I am still not sure whether holding through those cuts was disciplined or just stubborn, and I genuinely cannot tell you which quality saved me. The position is up about 31 percent total return from entry including reinvested dividends, but if the rate environment had moved differently I'd be writing a very different post. What I want to know is whether anyone has a way of deciding in advance, before the second cut happens, whether the underlying book is intact enough to hold. I watched spread compression and repo costs the whole time and still could not convince myself I had a clear answer.

2 replies

The thing I keep coming back to is whether leverage was moving in the same direction as book during that window. If management was actively cutting the repo book and letting the portfolio shrink rather than defending yield, that usually told me more than spread data alone, because it meant they were buying time rather than gambling on a rate reversal.

What was the CPR doing on the underlying pool through Q3 2020, because that is the number I always wanted before the second cut and almost never saw discussed clearly in the supplement.

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