How do you underwrite a $28k ask on a $71k balance in a town with no comps?
Here is a scenario worth working through. A small seller offers a one off note: balance $71,400, borrower has not paid since March 2024, ask $28,000. Single family, 1,340 square feet, built 1968, in a town of about 4,000 people, several hours from the buyer. What the buyer has in hand: the note, the recorded deed of trust, a payment history that looks complete, and a tax record showing an assessed value of $84,000. What the buyer does not have is any real sense of what the house is worth. Two sales in that zip in the last year can be found, one of them clearly a family transfer. Some states do not publish sale prices at all, and whether this is one of them is a question in itself. The seller's story is that he has held the note four years, it paid fine until 2024, and he does not want to deal with a default. That sounds honest and it is also the story anybody would tell. So the question for the room: how do you underwrite recovery when you cannot value the collateral? The discount to value is the whole protection in this strategy. Without a value, there is no way to know whether $28,000 is a 33 percent basis or an 80 percent basis. Is rural a pass by default, or is there a way to get a defensible number in a town this small?