A nine-month workout became 26 months, then I sold the note at a loss
Bought a first lien in a judicial state in early 2024. Unpaid balance $96,300, note rate 4.875%, payment $711, borrower 14 months down. Single family three bed one bath, drive-by value $118,000, taxes current, no HOA. I paid $37,500 and thought I was being conservative at 32 percent of value.
My underwriting had two paths. Modification at a reduced payment, or foreclose and sell the house. I modeled foreclosure at nine months and $9,000 of cost, because that's what the seller's rep told me was typical in that county and I didn't check it against anything else.
Borrower didn't respond to the servicer for four months. We filed. In month five he filed Chapter 13. The arrears went into a plan that stretched them over years, the case stayed the foreclosure, and I was suddenly a creditor in someone else's proceeding instead of a lender running my own timeline. My attorney had to file a claim, review the plan, and object to how the arrears were calculated. That is a lawyer's job start to finish and I stopped having opinions about it fast.
What it cost, all in over 26 months:
Purchase $37,500. Legal $6,800. Servicing and default servicing $2,300. Advanced taxes after they went delinquent in year two $2,900. Force-placed insurance $1,100. Total out $50,600.
What came back: plan and regular payments through the servicer of about $10,400, and I sold the note to a fund at month 26 for $34,000. Total in $44,400.
So I'm down about $6,200 in cash and 26 months, and the note was worth roughly what I paid the whole time. The house never became mine and never sold. Nothing dramatic happened. The clock just ate the deal.
What I'd do differently. I'd price the bankruptcy path as one of the base cases with a real cost and a real duration, because a borrower with equity and a filing history has every reason to use it. I'd pay someone local to tell me the actual county timeline before bidding rather than take the seller's number. I'd check the borrower's prior filings in the public docket, which I now understand is a normal pre-bid step and I skipped it. And I wouldn't buy paper in a state where I don't already have counsel on retainer. Foreclosure and bankruptcy practice differ by state and by court, so anything you read about timelines has to be confirmed with an attorney in that specific place.