The risk your post skips past is that "motivated problem" is doing all the work in your assumption, and most owners you reach through any channel in the first six months are not yet in a problem, they are in discomfort, which means they will list with an agent the moment the market feels favorable again. The gap between discomfort and a real problem is where most early sourcing money and time disappears.
What changes the conversion rate is being present at the moment discomfort tips, which is why property managers and contractors beat mailers on a cost-per-conversation basis early on, because they hear about the tip in real time rather than mailing into a static snapshot of ownership.
What is the actual problem type you are targeting, a cash-flow squeeze, deferred maintenance the owner cannot fund, partnership dispute, something else, because the channel that reaches each one efficiently is different?