Won a five unit at the confirmation hearing after losing the last one, here is what the overbid actually cost me
I spent $4,100 on diligence for an estate sale last year and watched somebody outbid me by $12,000 at the hearing. That money is gone. I went back in on a second one anyway and this time it worked, so here's the arithmetic on both.
My state runs court confirmation with an open overbid when the personal representative has limited authority. Confirmation practice differs enormously by state and plenty of places have nothing like it, so check yours before any of this means anything to you. The mechanic where I am: the accepted offer goes to a hearing, anyone can show up and bid over it by a minimum set by formula off the accepted price, and the judge confirms to whoever is highest in the room that morning. The sale is as-is. Your inspection contingency is worth nothing after the gavel, so all of your diligence has to be spent before you know whether you own anything.
The building: 1920s brick five unit walk-up in an inner ring suburb, all one bedrooms, same family since the early 70s. Accepted offer was $585,000, mine. Minimum first overbid came out around $614,750 under the formula. Two other bidders showed. It went in $5,000 steps and I took it at $622,000. My hard cap was $631,000 and I had it written on the back of my hand, which sounds ridiculous and was the only reason I stopped when the second bidder started nodding at his phone.
Pre-hearing diligence on this one was $6,400. Inspection $1,200, sewer lateral scope $350, structural engineer on a cracked rear porch column $950, attorney reviewing the terms of sale and the petition $1,800, title review $400, and the rest was travel and a day of my own time I priced at nothing. Across two attempts I've now spent $10,500 to buy one building.
The scope found a collapsed section of lateral, roughly $14,000 in my market. I bid with that in the number rather than hoping to renegotiate, because there is no renegotiation after confirmation. That is the single thing I'd tell anyone doing these.
The part that nearly broke it. Unit 3 was occupied by one of the decedent's sons, paying nothing, and the terms of sale delivered the building occupied. No credit, no adjustment. I budgeted $12,000 to move him and it cost $7,500 plus a month of patience. He took it because I met him at the building twice before the hearing and never once talked about the unit as a problem.
Rents in place were $4,050 across five units. Comparable one bedrooms in the area lease at $1,050 to $1,150. I've turned three units in eleven months at $1,095, $1,125, and $1,125, with turn cost averaging $6,800 because they were all original kitchens. Going in at $622,000 the trailing numbers were bad and my lender said so out loud. What I underwrote was the gap, and I put 30% down because nothing else would have penciled at the in-place rent.
What I'd keep: spending the diligence money before the hearing and treating it as a cost of playing, not a sunk cost to be avoided. What I'd change: I'd have written the cap on paper instead of my hand.