Does a 65 percent LTV actually protect me if the appraisal is two years old
I'm looking at a fund with an average LTV of 65 across the book, which sounds fine until I started pulling the individual loans. The appraisals on about a third of them are from mid-2022, peak pricing in most of the markets they lend in. Office in Austin, multifamily in Phoenix, light industrial outside Nashville. All three of those markets have moved since then, some of them a lot. If I recut the Austin office comps from Q1 this year and back into a current value, that 65 LTV on that loan is probably sitting closer to 78 or 80. At that point the cushion I thought I was buying is mostly gone. The fund is targeting 9.2 percent net to me. The competing option is a fund with a tighter geographic footprint, all bridge loans in the Carolinas, average LTV of 71 on paper but the appraisals are all from the last eight months. On a stale-appraisal-adjusted basis I trust the 71 more than I trust the 65. That is the whole problem with relying on the tape at face value. The number looks conservative right up until the collateral reprices and the loan doesn't.