My slowest probate deal this year took 14 months from first contact to close and netted $22,400.

The misconception worth correcting is that probate is slow because of the asset. It is slow because of the legal process sitting above the asset, and those two things have completely different remedies.

What I would want to know is how you are sourcing the 30 active contacts, because that is the number doing all the work in your model. Four closes out of 30 at roughly 14 percent conversion is actually strong for a lead type where the timeline is outside your control, but only if the cost to maintain that pipeline stays low enough that the year-plus holding pattern on any single contact does not eat the margin on the ones that close.

What does your average cost per contact look like across those 30, including your time at whatever you value it?

The 30-contact, 4-5 close ratio is the number worth examining here. That is roughly a 13-17% conversion on contacts you are actively maintaining, which is strong for probate, but the assumption doing the most work in your model is that your check-in cadence holds the relationship through a 14-month dispute without a single competitor walking in. That worked in Maricopa because the executor was unsophisticated. A more commercially aware personal representative, or one with an attorney who understands the asset, would have shopped it regardless of your prior relationship. The risk you did not mention: attorney involvement on the estate side is actually increasing as probate-adjacent legal services have started flagging wholesale contracts more aggressively. If the estate attorney starts recommending a broker instead, your 14 months of relationship maintenance evaporates in one conversation.

The Arizona number also tracks with the national data. The Real Bees survey put Arizona average fees near $5,000, which makes your $22,400 a clear outlier, presumably because probate generates deeper spreads than standard distressed leads. The question is whether that spread comes from genuine equity or from an executor who did not know enough to push back on your ARV. Both can produce the same fee. Only one of them is repeatable at scale.

Your pipeline math is actually sound for a strategy that most operators quit before the first close. The compounding risk is that 30 active contacts across varying dispute and administration timelines is a lot of open loops to manage without a system that flags re-engagement automatically, not just by calendar.

What does your contact log actually look like for a deal in month 8 versus month 2, and have you had any probate contact introduce competing interest mid-pipeline?

That 14-month timeline with a $22,400 fee actually tracks with what the strategy guide describes for probate: the guide notes that probate and pre-foreclosure deals tend to produce "deeper spreads" than standard single-family assignments, which average $8,000 to $15,000 nationally. The patience is part of why the number is larger.

The heir dispute you mentioned is worth naming for anyone reading this who is new to probate. When a property is in probate, meaning the court is overseeing how a deceased person's assets get distributed, the executor (the person the court authorizes to handle the estate) cannot sign a contract until the court resolves any disputes between the people who stand to inherit. You cannot manufacture that resolution. All you can do is stay present without being a nuisance, which is exactly what checking in every three weeks accomplishes.

The thing your post makes plain, even if you did not frame it this way, is that your pipeline math is doing most of the work. Thirty active contacts, four or five closes a year, fees in the range your post describes. One deal sitting idle for 14 months only threatens someone who does not have 29 other conversations running.

One thing worth flagging for anyone reading: Arizona was cited in the strategy guide as one of the lower-fee markets nationally, around $5,000 on average. A $22,400 fee in Maricopa suggests probate is genuinely a different pocket of the market there. I would not assume that fee is typical for standard assignments in the same geography.

How long did it take you to build a probate pipeline of 30 active contacts, and where did those leads come from initially?