The earnings on a two-appraiser shop need to survive the AVM math before the multiple makes sense
Take a residential appraisal firm in a mid-size metro that's for sale. Two certified residential appraisers, both owners, one trainee about 700 hours into supervised experience. Asking 640k on seller discretionary earnings of 205k, so 3.1x. The numbers in a package like this typically show something close to 1,050 completed reports and 712k revenue, with a mix of maybe 61 percent AMC-routed lender work averaging 512 net to the firm on consumer paid fees of 600 to 725, 24 percent direct lender and attorney work averaging 890, and 15 percent estate, divorce and tax appeal work averaging 1,640. Expenses run to two vehicles, data subscriptions, form software, E&O, and a trainee salary plus a per-file bonus. The part worth real scrutiny is that the AMC block, where the volume concentrates, is also the block that AVMs and appraisal waivers are eating. Industry guidance has put AVMs or property condition reports at something like 35 to 45 percent of home equity loans, with projections running higher into 2026. A file log that doesn't break out purchase versus refi versus home equity origin makes that risk hard to size. Add that UAD 3.6 goes mandatory in November 2026, and a form vendor contract renewal landing before that date with unknown new-version pricing is another unresolved variable. The real decision in a case like this is whether to make an offer before seeing the order mix by loan purpose, or whether the business is closer to a job than a business given how concentrated the risk is in one shrinking channel.