Handed a 62-key hotel to price, and every comp I pulled is useless
I'm still finishing my licensing hours and the broker I'm shadowing gave me a broker opinion of value to draft on a 62-key hotel in a secondary market, mostly as an exercise. I said yes before I understood what I was agreeing to.
Everything I've been taught so far is comps. Price per square foot, adjust for condition, done. So I pulled hotel sales in the county and got two things: prices quoted per key, and cap rates on trailing income. Those give me very different answers on this property. Per key comps put it around $4.3M. The trailing twelve months of income the owner provided shows about $410k of net operating income, and at the cap rates I'm seeing in the sales I found, that's more like $4.9M.
Also the monthly statements are wild. February did $19k of profit and July did $71k. I don't know what to do with that.
What I'm stuck on is which number leads. Does the income drive the price and the per-key figure is just a sanity check, or the other way around? And what am I supposed to say about a building whose income swings four to one across the year?