I have to defend a 60% leisure resort allocation I did not choose
Reviewing a hospitality fund allocation. 300m target, five to seven year hold, 2% management fee on committed, 8% pref, 60/40 above with a full catch-up. Sponsor's stated strategy is 60% leisure-destination resorts, 25% extended-stay, 15% urban select-service. Their argument for the resort weighting is that leisure rates reset higher and stayed there, and that resorts have pricing power select-service will never have.
My problem is that leisure-destination demand is the most discretionary demand in the sector and we're heading into a period where the labor market has softened. Extended-stay behaves more like an apartment with a front desk and holds occupancy in a downturn at lower rate. I can defend 25% resorts. I can't defend 60% with a straight face when the whole return depends on households continuing to spend on trips.
How do people actually stress test a segment weighting like this rather than just arguing about it? And is there a version of the resort thesis I'm not giving enough credit to?