Loss
Writing this up because I was the person who thought reading the pitch deck twice counted as diligence. End of 2021 I put $50k into an LP interest in a 312 unit value-add in a Sun…
Discussion
The thesis in front of me is straightforward enough that even I follow it. Apartment values reset, supply is falling off, rents firm up somewhere around 2027, and whoever bought a…
Discussion
I've now read three apartment fund PPMs and all three describe themselves as value-add. One is buying 2019-vintage lease-ups at a discount and doing essentially nothing to the uni…
From the desk:
I got sent a preferred equity offering on a 300-unit 2019-vintage asset and I'm stuck on one thing, which is whose value I'm supposed to be protected against. Structure as present…
Discussion
We're bidding interior renovations on a three-property, 1,100-unit portfolio an institutional buyer just took down as value-add. The scope sheet is standard: LVP, quartz caps over…
From the desk:
This is the allocation I've been circling since summer and I have to decide before year end because one of the funds closes. The fund: value-add multifamily, Sun Belt and lower mi…
Discussion
The recovery case rests on absorption overtaking deliveries and staying there long enough for rents to firm. Everyone models the pipeline contraction. Almost nobody models the res…
Discussion
I'm starting from nothing here and I want to understand the cost structure of an acquisitions operation before I understand anything else. Everything I read talks about markets an…
From the desk:
I've been asked for a $250k commitment to a closed-end apartment fund, $400m target, value-add and opportunistic multifamily, three year investment period with a one year extensio…
Discussion
We manage smaller stuff, mostly 40 to 120 unit properties for local owners. A group that just bought a 320-unit asset in our market wants third-party management and their agreemen…
From the desk:
Studying for the license and one of the brokers at the office let me sit in on a 180 unit listing. The offering memorandum leads with $172,000 per unit against a "replacement cost…
Loss
Co-invest, $400k, alongside a fund I'd been tracking for two years. Two properties, 466 units total, 1998 and 2001 vintage, one metro, closed spring 2022 at about $205k a door all…
Discussion
I'm doing scope pricing for a group buying a 288 unit 1996-vintage property in a Sun Belt submarket where deliveries are dropping off hard after 2026. Two scopes on the table and…
Discussion
Trying to read a submarket and the published numbers and the property-level numbers don't agree at all. The market report says asking rents in this submarket are down 1.4% year ov…
From the desk:
I've been building the buy list for six months and the screen finally spits out something I don't trust. What I rank on: forward deliveries as a percent of existing stock over the…
Discussion
I've read four value-add memos in the last six weeks and the structure of the rent assumption is the same in all of them. Year one flat to slightly negative, concessions burning o…
Discussion
I spend most of my time on land, so this is outside my lane. What got my attention is that the pipeline for new apartments is contracting sharply and vacancy looks like it topped…
Discussion
One of my commercial cleaning accounts is a regional apartment sponsor, and their acquisitions guy handed me a fund deck last time I was on site. It's a $180m vehicle buying garde…
From the desk:
I have a subscription agreement on my desk for an LP position in a single-asset deal and I keep circling the same page. Writing this out partly for myself, and partly because I wa…
Discussion
Every institutional apartment piece I read says the same thing, which is that vacancy has peaked around 8.5% and values sit 20 to 30% under the 2022 high, so this is the moment fo…