Seller wants 950 for an 11-unit collecting 7,850, and my number is due this week
Working up a valuation on an 11-unit I've been asked to list, and the gap between the rent roll and the bank statements is bigger than anything I've seen.
Rent roll says 9,100 a month. Twelve months of deposits average 7,850. The difference is two units occupied by the owner's brother-in-law and a former handyman at 400 each, plus one unit that's been vacant since spring and shows on the roll at market. So the roll is aspirational in three places.
My in-place math: 7,850 a month is 94.2k collected. Expenses from his returns run 39.6k, call it 42 percent, and he self-manages, so add 4 percent for management. In-place NOI lands near 50.8k. Local trades for this vintage have been closing at 7.25 to 7.75 caps going off what's actually recorded, so 655k to 700k.
His math: 11 units at 950 market is 125.4k, 5 percent vacancy, 40 percent expenses, NOI 71.5k, 7.5 cap, 953k. He's not being crazy about market rent, 950 is defensible for renovated one bedrooms here.
So the honest spread is roughly 700k to 950k and the entire difference is whether a buyer pays for two family units at 400 and a vacancy the seller created.
What I'm stuck on is how to present it. If I list at 700 I lose the listing to someone who tells him 900. If I list at 900 I sit for five months and then reduce, and I've watched that destroy pricing power on income deals. Thinking about listing on in-place with the pro forma stated separately and every assumption footnoted. Anyone actually done that on a small commercial listing without the seller walking?